Politics – Europe2.eu

The divided Germany

It has been more than thirty years since the German reunification but the recent European parliament election once again makes it very clear that there still exist two Germany when it comes to politics.

In nearly all of the geographical parts that once made up the east German state, the Alternative für Deutschland party now is the largest party in terms of votes. In fact, the only outliers from this pattern are Berlin, Potsdam city center and its surrounding land district, the district of Eichfeld which borders the “west Germany”, and the three Thuringian city centers of Erfurt, Weimar and Jena.

At the same time, there is not a single election district in the old west Germany where AfD is the party with the largest share of the vote. Here, that party is instead almost everywhere the Christian-democratic CDU – or in Bavaria its sister party CSU – with a few city center exceptions where the Greens or in some even fewer cases the Social Democratic Party comes out on top.

In addition, it is also worth noting that in the eastern parts a not insignificant number of voters chose to give their vote to the new Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht, a break-away from the Left party, while the same BSW in the western part garnered much lower numbers.

It is clear that Germany has a deep political divide and that it even after three decades have something to do with its divided history. That so many voters – in many cases around half of the voting population – in the eastern part chooses to give their vote to parties either to the extreme right or the extreme left cannot be viewed as anything else than a deep dissatisfaction with the traditional parties and their policies. A dissatisfaction that in some way or another must be listened to and taken seriously in order to stop anti-democratic forces from harnessing the discontent for their own purposes.

Macron’s high gamble

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the French parliament and proscribe a national election as soon as the result of the election to the EU parliament was clear is a high stakes gamble.

One thing to remember is that the French national elections and the elections for the EU parliament in France follows two different electorial systems. The EU parliament election is a proportional vote while the French elections is a variant of majority vote. This do mean that the Rassemblement National’s result in the first is not necessarily directly corresponding to a potential result in a national election. And this is probably one of the calculations made by Macron. The two-round voting system means that in the second round there will be only a couple names to choose by in each single seat electorial district.

Traditionally, the Rassemblement national/Front National’s results in French elections to the National Assembly as well as presidential elections have been tempered by the electorate’s willingness to come together and vote for “anyone but FN”. This is pretty much how every French president from Jacques Chirac forward have got their job.

The big question looming over the coming election is if this “anyone but…” voting pattern will still hold. The RN’s success in the European election is a sign that many French voters are prepared to vote for them, maybe also in a national election, and already in the last election where RN got 88 seats in the National Assembly this cordon sanitaire showed signs of breaking.

The second part of Macron’s calculation may be that elections to the European parliament and elections to the French National Assembly are in people’s mind two different things. Traditionally in most countries there is a clear increased willingness among many voters to be somewhat more “daring” in their choice of candidates for the in their minds more abstract and less important European Parliament than for their respective national parliaments. So when forced to show their cards in “a real election” some may be slightly less inclined to pick the more unsafe card.

At least that must be what president Macron hopes for in his high stakes gamble.

Orkney may take into consideration to become Norwegian again

Kirkwall Harbour, Orkney — Kirkwall Harbour. Photo: Stevekeiretsu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Orkney Islands are dissatisfied with the current funding and attention it receives from the UK government. Something that now has lead to Orkney council to start to investigate “alternative forms of governance”. The most radical of proposals being becoming a Norwegian territory again.

Historically Orkney was under Norwegian and later Danish rule from the early viking age until 1472 when the islands became Scottish as part of the wedding dowry for Margaret of Denmark when she married the future wife of King James III of Scotland.

The less radical – and probably more likely – options for Orkney to pursue is however a status more akin to that which the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man enjoy today.

Source: BBC Scotland

Polish PM Donald Tusk becomes new president of the European Council

Current Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has been designated as the next president of the European Council and as such tasked with chairing the meetings of the council which consists of the heads of government of the European Union member states as well as being the figurehead of the EU, a role he will officially take over from current president Herman Van Rompuy on December 1.

The selection of Tusk, an influential and high-profile liberal-conservative politician from one of the newer EU member states of central Europe could be seen as an acknowledgement of the growing importance of central and eastern Europe in European affairs, with Poland emerging as the regional heavyweight.

The modernization of the monarchies

One of the strongest traditions of the monarchical institutions has been the steadfast view that a monarch reigns until death, unless exceptional political circumstances have forced the incumbent out prematurely. The only traditional exception to this rule has been the Dutch monarchy, whose reigning queens during the 20th century have not hesitated to take a step back and go into retirement when their successor has been deemed ready to take over. But that has been the quirky exception to the rule.

Now, in the 21st century, however that age-old monarchical taboo however seem to be regarded more and more as an anachronism in today’s world. In a sweep that started with the – actually even more unprecedented – stepping down of pope Benedict XVI and then continued with the abdications of both the Dutch queen Beatrix as well as the Belgian king Albert II and, latest, Juan Carlos I of Spain, it seems like a new precedent is forming. In the modern monarchy it seems the head of state are now seen as entitled to retirement. Or deemed unproblematic enough to have around as a retiree. Because it must also be noted that the other side of the coin with abdicated monarchs is that you will in such circumstances have an ex-monarch who theoretically can remain an influential power voice and a voice that is no longer as bound by convention and position. Such a person could theoretically be a problematic political problem, all depending on his or hers personal ability to slip into the new and in many ways undefined role given. With the diminishing actual political power of the monarchs in today’s European states that could be a lesser problem, but nevertheless it is still to be seen during coming years if this new tradition of handing over the crown “in advance” will prove to be a beneficial move or not for these very archaic institutions. For now, it seems to be functioning.

Ukraine’s last hope?

The agreement now on the table might be the last chance to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and also to avoid a situation devolving into a civil war. The main question now is how much the agreement actually will be worth. The current regime in Ukraine has not shown itself to be very trustworthy when it comes to earlier agreements and at the same time the opposition, or at least its more hardcore elements, will most likely have difficulty accepting an agreement that leaves the hated president in power for maybe up to the end of the year.

It is also ominous that the special envoy of Russia unlike his EU counterparts from France, Poland and Germany apparently haven’t signed the agreement as was first intended. The Russian statement that they too want to see a stable Ukraine might not mean in their mind the same thing as it does for the EU.

(This text is also posted at Tonakai World.)

Time for German coalition talks

The German federal election became a success for incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel and her CDU, but simultaneously something of a problem in that the liberal FDP, the traditional CDU/CSU ally, for the first time in German post-war history saw themselves voted out of the Bundestag. This means that Angela Merkel now has to find a new coalition partner, which by necessity would mean either the social democrats or the greens. In either of these cases it will mean lengthy and difficult talks before any coalition may be put in place.

The most likely outcome is a new grand coalition between the Christian democrats and the Social democrats, but this won’t be achieved without a great deal of bargaining. The SDP is most likely wary of sitting in a coalition as the junior partner again, with clear memories of the not all that rewarding time in the latest grand coalition of 2005-2009. The Greens on the other hand are perceived to be further from the CDU/CSU in ideology, even if the differences in key areas such as the nuclear energy question much have disappeared after the Christian democrats’ u-turn after Fukushima. A CDU/CSU-Green coalition is not ruled out, but remains the more unlikely option for now.

Can pope Francis make a change?

Pope Benedict XVI’s unexpected stepping down from his office made way for the election of Cardinal Bergoglio as pope Francis. A new pope from a new part of the World and with a new, never before used papal name, apparently taken out of reverence for one of the most well-known and saintliest Saints of the church.

The Swedish writer Göran Hägg made a note in his book about the popes throughout history that the 20th Century popes seemed to fall into a pattern of alternating jovial pastoral men with more teological academical ones and the current election seems to follow neatly in that pattern. The newly elected pope Francis is much more like late John Paul II than his immediate predecessor Benedict XVI. Once again the Roman Catholic Church has at its helm a man that is following a pastoral call.

The Pirates are entering Berlin politics

For the first time has a Pirate Party entered the political arena for real. With nine percent of the votes in the election in Berlin, the German Piratenpartei managed to get a good bit above the threshold limit and enters the Berlin Abgeordnetehaus where it will have 15 of the 152 seats in the parliament.

Is this the beginning of a new political movement getting a foothold in German and European politics, much like the green parties once started their road to become a serious part of the European political landscape, or is it only a temporary fad and more of a protest against the established parties? It is yet a little too early to tell. There certainly are signs that the issues that the pirate parties count as their core areas – personal integrity, data protection, net freedom and the likes – are growing in importance, much like during the 1970s and 1980s the environment got in focus. The question is if this new set has the momentum needed to foster a new political alignment. That the Pirate Party get their first real success in Berlin is in itself not all that surprising. The city has a relatively large number of people with alternative lifestyle views and on top of that a booming creative and internet-focused culture. Even so it still must be seen as somewhat surprising that almost one tenth of the voters chose to give their vote to this yet untested party. The future will tell if the Pirates manage to repeat their electorial success in other, more traditional parts of Germany or not.